Background and Assumptions

In these pages I will add further information and references to support the main posts. When I started I expected to do a page for every idea. More recently I’ve not done this because it made the process of generating a post rather slow.

The general  background assumptions for these sketches are:

  1. In 2050 the world population is 9 billion, and stable.
  2. The poorer areas of the world have been taken out of poverty, continuing a trend apparent in 2014.
  3. There have been no major wars
  4. The health of the world has improved due to better health care in poor regions and reduced meat intake in the wealthy areas.
  5. Reduced meat intake and better plant types – including some GM crops – mean that the world can feed itself and still leave some large wild areas as refuges of bio-diversity.
  6. Carbon emissions have been dramatically reduced as new technology comes into play.
  7. The other planetary limits are understood and respected.
  8. Energy is provided by carbon-free sources. Carbon dioxide is no longer released into the atmosphere.  The carbon-free sources are mainly renewable, augmented by nuclear plants and/or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage where energy requirements exceed the capacity of renewable resources.
  9. Economic growth has continued. Most people on the planet enjoy a higher standard of living than the European average in 2014.
  10. African countries, especially the dry countries in North Africa, have enjoyed a surge in wealth as the economic value of their solar energy becomes apparent.
  11. Climate change has been damaging but not catastrophic.

Note that these assumptions are not predictions. No-one can predict the future with any certainty.

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